The federal government is not in danger of shutting down unless Congress and President Donald Trump strike a deal.
But that’s unlikely anytime soon, according to the bipartisan Congressional Budget Office.
The agency’s latest assessment finds that the government will be able to function and service its obligations in 2019 without a government shutdown.
The CBO said the agency expects the government to pay $3.6 trillion in bills, which is $4.3 trillion below its estimate for 2019.
And, it said, the federal government would continue to pay more in interest payments and other outlays.
“The federal government will continue to operate as usual, with limited disruptions in payments to creditors, and no significant impact on the debt or the budget,” the CBO said.
“This is a normal part of business, but it is important to note that the effects of a shutdown will be temporary and could be mitigated through the normal budgeting process.”
The CBO also estimated that the federal deficit would fall to $9.5 trillion in 2019, down from $15.5 billion in 2019.
The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Committee released its own estimate of the impact of a government shut down this week, which estimated that shutdowns would have a modest impact on economic growth, as long as they are limited to six months or less.
The Congressional Budget office has said for months that a shutdown would be a boon to the economy.
A shutdown, the CBO found, would result in the loss of $2.5 million in government funding for each day that a government closed.
A shut down would also likely have a ripple effect through other federal programs, as well as the economy, by cutting government spending, raising taxes and driving up unemployment.
The budget office’s latest analysis, however, doesn’t include any information on how the government would be affected by a shutdown.
“We do not know the effect that a partial government shutdown would have on the economy or the impact on payments to insurers and other government contractors, but we do know that the economic impacts of a partial shutdown would likely be minimal,” the office said.
The report also estimated the economic impact of $1.6 billion in tax relief and $1 billion in spending cuts that Congress could enact if it passes a partial budget resolution.
The Senate has already passed its own budget resolution, which would keep the federal debt below 100 percent of gross domestic product, and the House passed a budget resolution this week that would keep it at 100 percent.
Both bills are expected to pass in the coming days.